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You may or may not have been following the CLS Power Rankings before, but the kind folks at bloguin invited the NHL people to submit their picks (and comments) for your general perusal.
Rather than going with my gut reactions (and projections), I decided to base my decisions on some number crunching instead. As a man who fears math and thinking, this is actually a fairly big step.
Even at the quarter point of the season, it's important to keep in mind that these numbers still provide a fairly small sample. Although many of these teams may come down to earth (or out of their unexpected hibernation), the numbers don't lie even if I occasionally would prefer that they did.
After the jump: my rankings, what the stats mean and other stuff to wrinkle your brains.
I do want to emphasize (again) that these rankings are based on the stats I compiled. Deep down, I have some doubts about the Atlanta Thrashers but their numbers are pretty damn impressive.
Here's the Power Rankings list based off of "Most Important" with "Power Ranking Average" being the tie-breaker. (See the bottom of this post if you'd like explanation of those stats.)
(click here to enlarge spreadsheet)
The rest of this post will be a lot like Frosted Mini-Wheats.
I'll start with the frosting, which in this case will be the silly comments I wrote for each team (listed in alphabetical order). The Power Rankings are in the above spreadsheet (with the Sharks at #1 and the Ducks all the way at the bottom).
After that there will be the sugarless stat-heavy spread sheets to balance your blogging diet. Hopefully you'll be interested in the brain fiber, but if not at least suck on the sugar for a little while ...
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Anaheim: While my instincts scream "Pronger curse," the Ducks didn't exactly start last season on fire either. They're a mess.
Atlanta: I'm basing my picks STRICTLY off of stats rather than projections, but it still is amazing how great Atlanta's been on special teams.
Boston: Feel sad about a slow start? Look down at the standings at Toronto and realize that the Bruins have an extremely bright future.
Buffalo: The NHL's elite goalies list (to me at least) looks like: Luongo, Brodeur, Vokoun, Lundqvist and Miller. He is the backbone, soul, libido ... the everything for Buffalo.
Calgary: Dion Phaneuf and coach Sutter might be at each other's throats, but the Flames have a lot of good things going for them.
Carolina: It stuns me a bit that people are shocked that the Hurricanes are struggling. When Pitkanen is arguably your best defenseman, you probably aren't going to go anywhere in the NHL.
Chicago might be in for some real trouble next summer, but for the 2009-10 season they're a very real Stanley Cup contender.
Colorado: Sure, this year's Cinderella shocker is slowing down a bit (losing four of their last five), but Craig Anderson might just be the best free agent signing of last summer.
Columbus: Is this the Bizarro BJs? Their powerplay is lethal and their defense is weak. You'll know things are weird if Hitch grows his 'stache back ...
Dallas: It's difficult to truly get a feel for this Stars team. Then again, with a PK as hot as theirs is at the moment, there's reason to be optimistic.
Detroit: It seems like Detroit is quickly rising to the top of the class again. Then again, those new kids from Chicago are bringing in some really shiny apples ...
Edmonton: If the Avalanche are the shocking team of the year, Dustin Penner is the stunning breakout star. Not a great end of '09 for old Burkie, eh?
Florida: Suddenly the Panthers are showing life after a putrid start. Will it be another year on the bubble for the Panthers?
Los Angeles: Anze Kopitar has been a revelation this year, but will he maintain his scoring lead with mulleted wonder Ryan Smyth out for a month?
Minnesota: The more things change, the more they stay the same in Minnesota. Havlat's been a huge disappointment even though he's been fairly healthy.
Nashville's on a roll right now, but can they really keep up in a crowded division and a brutal Western conference?
New Jersey Devils: He's not exactly Mr. Entertainment, but Jacques Lemaire is an outstanding coach. I'm not even slightly surprised the Devils remain a perennial threat.
New York Islanders: Credit the Islanders for being a scrappy bunch.
NY Rangers: Could it be that a suddenly neutered Sean Avery simply donated his groin to Marian Gaborik?
Ottawa: Considering their tumultuous off-season, the Senators are playing some solid hockey so far.
Philadelphia: This team is deep, mean and talented. The Flyers are easily among the elite in the East.
Phoenix: Ilya Bryzgalov benefitted greatly from Dave Tippett's arrival in the desert.
Pittsburgh: When you play until the last game of the year two years in a row, you're going to be banged up. Then again, the Penguins always hit a wall in the early winter months. They'll be just fine when the games start to matter.
San Jose: To quote Gordon Gekko, "Greed is good." With Marleau, Nabby, Setoguchi and Pavelski in contract years this might be San Jose's best chance to win a Cup. And dare I say it, I think they are the best bet to do just that.
St. Louis: St. Louis's recent struggles show that they probably overachieved quite a bit last season. There's still a bounty of promising talent on this team, though.
Tampa Bay: This might not be a popular question, but is Vincent Lecavalier the most overrated player in the NHL right now?
Toronto: Every loss just makes that Kessel trade look more reckless. He BETTER be good because Burke created a potential dynasty in Boston with that blunder.
Vancouver: will probably make the playoffs, but the Olympic break will mess up their mojo enough to keep them from winning the NW division.
Washington: Do you think Jose Theodore and Andrew Raycroft day dream about their days as legit NHL goalies? It sure seems like GMs are a nostalgic lot, because Theo's had a fork in his back for years now.
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Most Important
Net Goals (goals scored minus goals allowed) plus Special Teams Plus/Minus (ppg scored + shg scored - ppg allowed + shg allowed).
I considered those the two "most important" of the four stats I consider and/or "introduced" so I decided to allow those to determine my power rankings.
Power Rankings Average
This is simply the average of team's ranking in four stat categories: Net Goals; Special Teams Plus Minus; True PP% (a team's powerplay percentage, only factoring in shorthanded goals allowed to get a better feeling for how truly efficient it is); True PK% (like True PP%, only factoring in shorthanded goals a team scores to get a better idea of how efficient a team's penalty kill is)
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Special Teams Plus/Minus
For a nice snapshot of how each NHL team is doing on special teams (including my stat inventions of True PP% and True PK%), take a look at this spread sheet ...
(Click here to enlarge spreadsheet)
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True PP%
(click here to enlarge spreadsheet)
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True PK%
(click here to enlarge spreadsheet)
Because I'm lazy, here's a link to the old site with all of these different stats explained in greater detail. Enjoy the photos of nerds. If I feel compelled I'll update this link with this site's archives. So I probably won't. If you're still reading anyway, then bless you.
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